美国“斩杀线”中的更大危机，正在显现

Core Insights - The concept of "cut-off line" highlights the fragility of the U.S. social security system, indicating that ordinary citizens may face severe financial distress due to unforeseen circumstances [1] - Scholars from the Cato Institute warn that the escalating costs of Medicare are a primary driver of the U.S. debt crisis, projecting a funding shortfall exceeding $53 trillion over the next 70 years, which constitutes about 72% of the total long-term funding gap [1] - The Medicare program is expected to generate a $9.5 trillion funding shortfall in the next decade, accounting for 45% of the projected $21 trillion federal deficit during the same period [1] Group 1: Medicare Spending Trends - Medicare spending is growing at a rate faster than GDP, and this trend is becoming increasingly pronounced, necessitating reforms rather than relying solely on economic growth [2] - The increase in Medicare spending is attributed to both advancements in medical technology and systemic inefficiencies, including significant resource waste due to loopholes in the Medicare system [2] - A study cited indicates that from 1997 to 2011, a major portion of the increase in Medicare spending was due to the expansion of treatment options, with a significant fraction of expenditures yielding no real health benefits [2] Group 2: Systemic Issues and Lobbying - The inclusion of various treatment options in Medicare spending has not adequately considered the resulting resource waste and the financial burden on taxpayers [4] - Some insurance providers exploit diagnostic exaggeration to profit from Medicare loopholes, while a powerful lobbying group comprising insurers and healthcare providers actively resists reforms that would benefit taxpayers and control costs [4] - The proposed reforms to the Medicare system face significant opposition in Congress due to intense partisan conflicts and the potential negative impact on the healthcare industry [7]