VST vs. Dominion Energy: Which Utility Power Stock Offers More Upside?

Industry Overview - Companies in the Zacks Utility – Electric Power industry present an attractive investment case due to stable cash flows and predictable earnings supported by regulated business models [1] - Long-term power purchase agreements help shield many U.S. utilities from economic volatility, while growing electricity demand from AI-driven data centers, electric vehicle adoption, and reshoring manufacturing creates new growth opportunities [1] Company Analysis: Dominion Energy - Dominion Energy offers a strong long-term investment case due to its regulated model, stable cash flows, and reliable dividends, positioning it well for income-focused investors [3] - The company is investing $50 billion in capital expenditures from 2025 to 2029 to strengthen its operations, which is significantly higher than Vistra's $2.2 billion annual investment plan [12] - Dominion's earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 and 2026 increased year over year by 22.74% and 5.93%, respectively, with long-term earnings growth pegged at 10.26% [8] - Dominion has a dividend yield of 4.51% and a lower debt-to-capital ratio of 57.71%, making it financially healthier compared to Vistra [9][15] Company Analysis: Vistra Corp. - Vistra Corp. is attractive due to a balanced mix of natural gas, nuclear, solar, and battery storage assets, providing strong cash flow visibility and disciplined capital allocation [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vistra's EPS in 2025 decreased by 26.29% but is projected to increase by 62.33% in 2026, with long-term earnings growth pegged at 11.67% [5][8] - Vistra's current dividend yield is 0.56%, significantly lower than Dominion's, and it has a higher debt-to-capital ratio of 75.11% [11][15] Valuation and Performance - Dominion is currently trading at a forward P/E of 16.39X, which is cheaper compared to Vistra's 19.42X and the industry's average of 14.65X [16][18] - Over the past six months, Dominion's shares have gained 4.8%, while Vistra's shares have declined by 11.9%, with the sector returning 7.6% [19] Conclusion - Overall, Dominion is in a better position compared to Vistra due to stable earnings growth, better dividend yield, elaborate capital expenditure plan, lower debt usage, and cheaper valuation [24] - Dominion currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), while Vistra carries a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating a stronger investment case for Dominion [25]