车市寒冬迎新政“强心针”，2026年前景如何？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market is experiencing a downturn as the year ends, with many companies facing challenges in sales and inventory management due to policy changes and consumer hesitation [1][6][15]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The automotive market is described as facing a "cold winter," with sales personnel frequently using the term to describe current conditions [1][5]. - Sales data indicates a significant decline in orders, with some brands reporting a drop from approximately 20 orders to around 10 in a month [9]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with many consumers waiting for clearer policy guidelines for 2026 before making purchasing decisions [6][7]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and other departments released the implementation details for the 2026 vehicle trade-in subsidy, which is expected to provide a boost to the market [2][16]. - The new subsidy structure includes up to 20,000 yuan for electric vehicles and 15,000 yuan for fuel vehicles, aimed at encouraging consumer purchases [16]. - The discontinuation of previous trade-in subsidies has led to a decline in consumer demand, contributing to the current market slowdown [15]. Group 3: Sales Trends - Retail sales in the first three weeks of December showed a decline of approximately 19% year-on-year, with wholesale sales down by about 23% [14]. - The new energy vehicle segment also faced challenges, with retail sales only increasing by 1% year-on-year, while wholesale sales decreased by 10% [14]. - The disappearance of the "tail effect" typically seen at year-end is attributed to policy changes and consumer uncertainty regarding future incentives [15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry experts predict that the overall growth rate for the automotive market in 2026 will exceed zero growth, with expectations for a strong start in January [16]. - Companies are focusing on inventory clearance and promotional strategies to stabilize sales channels as they await further policy developments [12].