【BSPI】环渤海动力煤价格指数693元/吨

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a stabilization in the coal market with a slight decline in prices, driven by seasonal demand and supply dynamics, while highlighting the cautious sentiment among end-users regarding high-priced coal [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Trends - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index closed at 693 RMB/ton, down by 2 RMB/ton compared to the previous period [1] - The spot price for 5500K thermal coal was 681 RMB/ton, while the long-term contract price was 694 RMB/ton, indicating a ratio of 1:9 between spot and long-term prices [1] - Among 24 specifications, 10 saw price declines of 5 RMB/ton, reflecting a broader trend of price stabilization [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Domestic production capacity is constrained as some major coal-producing regions have completed their annual production targets and are reducing output or entering maintenance phases [2] - The impact of high historical import levels is diminishing, and the decline in domestic coal prices has led to a price competitiveness issue for some imported coals, with expectations of reduced imports in January [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - Heating demand is experiencing moderate growth, with coastal power plants' daily consumption increasing by 13% since the beginning of the month, driven by expectations of colder weather [2] - Non-electric demand remains relatively stable, with high operating rates in non-electric industries contributing to steady demand signals [2] Group 4: Inventory and Market Sentiment - Coastal power plants' available days of coal have dropped to below 17 days, indicating a need for replenishment, although port inventories remain high [3] - The market sentiment is cautious, with end-users hesitant to purchase high-priced coal, leading to a slower pace of demand release and limiting price rebound potential [3] Group 5: Shipping Market - The coastal coal shipping market has seen a rise in freight rates, with the shipping coal price index increasing by 7.39% to 714.16 points [3] - Specific routes have reported increases in average freight rates, such as the Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou route rising to 37.6 RMB/ton, and the Qinhuangdao to Shanghai route increasing to 24.6 RMB/ton [3]