Schaeffers Investment Research·2025-12-31 16:39Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) shares have increased by 2% to $305.55 following Nvidia's encouragement for TSMC to increase production of H200 AI chips to meet rising demand from China [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - TSMC shares have stabilized above the $300 level after pulling back from a record high of $313.98 on December 10, achieving six consecutive positive trading sessions [2] - The stock is up 127% from its year-to-date low of $134.25 on April 9 and is projected to close 2025 with a 54.6% gain [2] Group 2: Options Activity - Options traders are leaning bearish, indicated by TSMC's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 2.22, which ranks in the 98th percentile of its annual range [3] - Today's options activity shows 42,000 calls traded, which is double the typical volume, compared to 33,000 puts, with the most active being the weekly 1/2 307.50-strike call [3] Group 3: Volatility Expectations - TSMC's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) is at 35%, which is higher than just 9% of all readings from the past year, indicating that near-term option traders are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations [4]