金丰来:政策权衡期 金价4300上方博弈

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has shown strong resilience despite the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, maintaining a steady upward trend above $4,300 per ounce [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut rates by 0.25% marks the completion of three consecutive quarters of policy easing, but it has adopted a restrained approach towards future rate cuts, limiting expectations to two cuts by 2026 [3]. - The minutes from the Fed's meeting highlighted the "lagging observation effect" and a commitment to returning inflation to target, providing a long-term observation window for the market [3]. - The cautious stance of the Fed, while suppressing aggressive monetary easing expectations in the short term, creates a favorable environment for gold as a hedge against uncertainty [3]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - The slower pace of policy changes has allowed bulls to consolidate positions around the $4,300 level, strengthening the medium to long-term bottom for gold prices [2][3]. - Current spot gold prices are hovering around $4,365.90 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of approximately 1%, indicating investor preference for physical asset allocation amidst policy uncertainties [2][3]. - The status of gold as a safe-haven asset remains intact and is becoming more solidified due to the Fed's ongoing evaluations of labor market and economic activity [4].