ZFX山海证券:白银25年长周期趋势未改

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has shown remarkable explosive growth by the end of 2025, becoming a focal point in global asset allocation, with a significant annual increase of 160% [1][3] Group 1: Price Movement and Market Structure - Despite experiencing a sharp 9% fluctuation after reaching a historical high of $84 per ounce, silver has maintained a strong position at the $72 mark, indicating a revaluation of its strategic value amid high macroeconomic uncertainty [1][3] - A logarithmic perspective reveals that silver is in a sustained 25-year compound growth channel, suggesting that current trends are more stable than they appear on linear charts [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for physical silver has reached a multi-year peak, with global demand surpassing 1.24 billion ounces in 2025, while the supply gap remains high at 200 to 230 million ounces [2][4] - Stricter trade restrictions on major refined silver exporters starting January may lead to a potential supply reduction of up to 30%, exacerbating physical premiums in key trading centers like London and India [2][4] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The likelihood of major importing countries imposing high tariffs remains low, and any trade restrictions on large silver bars could severely impact OTC market liquidity, which is not conducive to global industrial recovery [5] - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization and current industrial demand suggests that silver's medium to long-term upward momentum remains strong, with its value as an inflation hedge and industrial raw material becoming more pronounced by 2026 [5]