SE's Credit Loss Provisions Surge: Is Digital Finance Growth at Risk?

Core Insights - Sea Limited's (SE) digital finance expansion is accelerating, but the sharp rise in credit loss provisions raises concerns about the sustainability of growth [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Sea Limited's provision for credit losses increased by 76.3% year over year, significantly outpacing its revenue growth of 38.3% [2][10] - Digital Financial Services (DFS) revenues rose by 60.8%, with consumer and SME loan balances climbing nearly 70% year over year [10] - The DFS cost of revenues increased by 37.5% year over year, driven by higher collection activity, transaction-related fees, and infrastructure build-outs [4][10] Customer Acquisition and Risk - DFS growth is driven by aggressive customer acquisition, onboarding a large number of first-time borrowers, which increases credit risk due to a rising share of newer, less-seasoned customers [3] - Despite management's assurance of stable portfolio quality with an NPL90+ ratio of 1.1%, provisioning trends indicate heightened caution as the loan portfolio expands rapidly [4] Competitive Landscape - Grab Holdings (GRAB) poses a strong competitive threat in digital financial services, with its Financial Services revenues growing by 39% year over year, driven by lending contributions from GrabFin and its digital banks [6] - PayPal (PYPL) reported approximately 7% revenue growth to about $8.4 billion in Q3 2025, highlighting its scale and robust risk technology, making it a powerful rival to SE's digital financial services [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Sea Limited's shares have declined by 14.8% in the past six months, underperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector's growth of 20.9% [8] - SE stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 22.76, lower than the sector's 27.87X, and carries a Value Score of F [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SE's 2025 and 2026 earnings is $3.54 and $5.64 per share, implying strong year-over-year growth of 110.71% and 59.32%, respectively [15]