KeyBanc Expresses Confidence in SM Energy’s (SM) $12.8B Merger With Civitas Resources

Core Viewpoint - SM Energy Company (NYSE:SM) is identified as a low-priced stock with significant upside potential, particularly following KeyBanc's revised price target of $28 from $36 while maintaining an Overweight rating due to increased confidence in the Civitas Resources Inc. merger [1]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, SM Energy reported a net income of $155.1 million, equating to $1.35 per diluted common share, surpassing analyst estimates of $1.30 per share [3]. - Total revenue for the quarter reached $846 million, aligning with market expectations [3]. - Total net daily production increased by 26% year-over-year, with oil production surging by 47%, highlighting the effectiveness of the company's acquisition and development strategies [3]. Strategic Insights - KeyBanc's confidence in SM Energy is based on three main pillars: robust free cash flow generation, a rapid deleveraging schedule, and a disciplined debt management plan [2]. - The merger with Civitas Resources, initially met with skepticism, has been validated through financial analysis and management discussions, reinforcing its strategic value [2]. Company Overview - SM Energy is an independent energy company focused on acquiring, exploring, developing, and producing oil, gas, and natural gas liquids primarily in Texas [4].