GTC泽汇资本:黄金牛市升级

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are showing strong resilience above $4,300 per ounce, indicating the strongest annual cycle since 1979 with an approximate 66% increase, suggesting the onset of a major cycle [1] - GTC ZEHUI Capital believes that the current rise is not merely speculative but a result of profound changes in global financial fundamentals, with 2025 expected to be a "breakout year" for this transformation [1] Group 1 - The market is undergoing a "structural shift" that is fundamentally altering the investment landscape, with energy accumulation leading to potentially disruptive impacts once released [1] - Central banks have been consistently increasing their gold holdings since 2022, creating a solid physical bottom for the market, which is rare in previous economic cycles [1] - This structural demand from official institutions not only provides hard support for gold prices but also positions them to challenge the $5,000 mark in the coming year [1] Group 2 - Concerns regarding "overbought" conditions and "bubbles" should not equate high prices with exhausted momentum; the upward trend is expected to continue despite entering a potential bubble zone [2] - Structural inflation factors, such as de-globalization trends and increased trade friction, are difficult to eliminate and contribute to the ongoing market dynamics [2] - GTC ZEHUI Capital suggests that the Federal Reserve's optimistic expectations regarding inflation may be overly idealistic, as traditional bond assets lose their safe-haven appeal due to negative real returns [2] Group 3 - Gold's role has evolved from a "hedging tool" to a "core allocation asset," as the Fed's attempts to control yields through balance sheet adjustments may not restore long-term confidence in monetary stability [2] - The $5,000 price target is seen as achievable by 2025, representing a phase in a long-term bull market for gold, with inevitable healthy corrections along the upward path [2] - Gold's strategic value is being rediscovered in the market as an essential component of diversified asset portfolios, with GTC ZEHUI Capital committed to monitoring global macro trends for investment opportunities in the gold market [2]