数据点评 | 12月PMI回升的四大支撑（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The December PMI indices show a significant rebound in manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, driven by new economic momentum and consumer goods industries, while the effects of debt reduction are easing and export resilience is supporting growth [2][3][25]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%, marking a return to the growth threshold after nine months [2][6]. - The production and new orders indices rose by 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points to 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively [6][28]. - High-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors saw improvements, with PMIs rising by 2.4 and 0.6 percentage points to 52.5% and 50.4% [12][18]. Group 2: Consumer Goods Sector - The overall consumer goods PMI rose by 1 percentage point to 50.4%, despite a significant decline in the automotive sector PMI, which fell by 5.8 percentage points [15][25]. - The textile and apparel industry PMI increased by 4.5 percentage points to 57.5%, reflecting improvements in travel-related demand [15][25]. Group 3: Construction Sector - The construction PMI rose by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, indicating a recovery in building activities due to easing debt reduction pressures and the implementation of new policies [3][18]. - The new orders index in the construction sector increased by 1.3 percentage points, while the employment index slightly declined [50]. Group 4: Export and Domestic Demand - The domestic orders index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 51.1%, while the new export orders index improved by 1.4 percentage points to 49% [22][25]. - Port trade volumes increased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, maintaining a high level of activity [22][25].