Prediction Markets Eye $300B in Volume As a Global ‘Truth’ Layer

Core Insights - Prediction markets are projected to reach $40 billion in transaction volume by 2025, representing a growth of over 400% from the previous year, potentially rivaling the $300 billion global sports betting industry by 2026 [2][6] - The growth is attributed to regulatory clarity in the U.S., institutional interest, and changes in public information consumption [2] - New use cases for prediction markets are emerging, focusing on democratizing truth and aiding in decision-making through aggregated probabilities [3] Market Growth and User Base - Total prediction market volume is expected to increase from $9 billion in 2024 to $40 billion in 2025, with the user base potentially expanding to around 15 million, a three-to-four-fold increase [4] - The integration of Kalshi's NFL-related event contracts into the Robinhood trading app has significantly accelerated market adoption, increasing Kalshi's market share from 8% to 66% [5] - Following this integration, annualized trading volume surged from $300 million to an estimated $40–50 billion, with daily active users increasing twenty-fold to approximately 75,000 [5]