油价录得2020年以来最大年度跌幅

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have declined slightly, leading to an annual drop of over 18% for 2025, despite geopolitical tensions, higher tariffs, OPEC+ production increases, and sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. The market is increasingly anticipating a supply surplus [1][5]. Oil Price Movements - The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for February delivery fell by $0.53, or 0.91%, closing at $57.42 per barrel [1]. - Brent crude oil contracts decreased by $0.48, or 0.78%, settling at $60.85 per barrel, marking an over 18% decline, the worst annual percentage drop since 2020, and the longest consecutive annual decline on record [2][5]. Inventory Data - According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 1.9 million barrels to 422.9 million barrels, exceeding analyst expectations of a 867,000-barrel decline [3][7]. - Gasoline inventories rose by 5.8 million barrels to 234.3 million barrels, significantly higher than the expected increase of 190,000 barrels [7]. OPEC+ Production and Market Outlook - OPEC+ has accelerated production increases, releasing approximately 2.9 million barrels per day since April, and has paused further production increases for the first quarter of 2026 [4][8]. - Analysts predict that supply will exceed demand next year, with surplus estimates ranging from 3.84 million barrels per day by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to 2 million barrels per day by Goldman Sachs [9]. Geopolitical Factors - Despite indications of a supply surplus, geopolitical risks are expected to support oil prices. Analysts caution against underestimating the impact of geopolitical factors on market dynamics [5][9].