2025年伦铜累涨近42%，创下16年来最大年度涨幅

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures fell by $136, closing at $12,423 per ton, while cumulative gains for 2025 reached nearly 42%, marking the largest annual increase in 16 years [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Analysts expect that the premium of CME over LME will continue to attract copper inflows into U.S. inventories until a decision on copper tariffs is made by the U.S. in mid-2026, leading to tighter supplies in traditional consumption centers [1] - Dan Smith, Managing Director of Commodity Market Analytics, stated that the current flows are primarily driven by arbitrage and remain constrained by U.S. policies, which are difficult to predict [1] Group 2: Seasonal Factors - Seasonal factors are expected to provide short-term support for copper, as the first quarter typically bolsters the industrial cycle, leading to significant inventory replenishment before the summer [1]