罕见！暴涨超200%！比金银还猛

Core Viewpoint - Tungsten prices have experienced a rare surge this year, with major products like tungsten concentrate, ammonium paratungstate, and tungsten carbide seeing price increases exceeding 200% due to multiple factors, primarily supply constraints [1][5][19]. Group 1: Price Trends - In 2025, the price of black tungsten concentrate rose from approximately 143,000 yuan/ton to 459,000 yuan/ton, while ammonium paratungstate increased from about 210,500 yuan/ton to 675,000 yuan/ton, both showing over 200% growth [1]. - Global tungsten production in 2024 is projected at 67,000 tons, with China accounting for 83% of this output [3]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - Tungsten has been classified as a protective mining resource in China since 1991, with total control and unified management implemented. Recent export controls and increased efforts against smuggling and illegal mining have tightened domestic and international supply [5]. - Analysts indicate that challenges such as declining mining lifespans and lower ore grades are directly contributing to the significant price increases this year [7]. Group 3: Downstream Impact - Despite rising tungsten prices, downstream hard alloy enterprises in regions like Hunan and Jiangxi have not seen a decrease in orders; some sectors even report growth [11][13]. - Companies are employing strategies such as long-term price locking for raw materials, reducing production costs, and increasing prices for high-end products to mitigate the impact of rising costs [13]. Group 4: Market Characteristics - The unique characteristics of the tungsten market, including its concentration and properties like high-temperature and corrosion resistance, contribute to sustained demand despite price increases [15][17]. - Many companies are focusing on research and development to enhance material performance and stability, thereby maintaining a cost advantage in high-end applications [17]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The tight supply situation is expected to persist in the short term, with limited downward price movement anticipated. The industry is increasingly focusing on tungsten recycling as a "second mine" to address supply constraints [19]. - The expansion of tungsten applications in emerging industries, driven by global manufacturing trends towards high-end, intelligent, and green technologies, is expected to support long-term price stability [20][22]. - Analysts predict that tungsten prices will maintain an upward trend, with a long-term balance between supply and demand becoming the new normal [26].