IDC再下修全球PC出货预估

Core Insights - IDC has revised its global PC shipment forecast for 2026 downwards for the second time, indicating a potential annual decline of 5% in a neutral scenario and up to 9% in a pessimistic scenario due to ongoing memory shortages and price increases [1] - The previous forecasts from November 2025 and December 2025 indicated smaller declines, showing a significant deterioration in expectations over a short period [1] - The memory shortage is characterized as a strategic reconfiguration of capacity rather than a typical cyclical fluctuation, which poses a long-term challenge for the PC industry [1] Industry Impact - The 9% decline, while not catastrophic, is significant, especially when compared to the 11.9% drop during the 2009 financial crisis and a nearly 15% decline post-pandemic due to market saturation [1] - The PC industry is facing critical challenges with the cessation of Windows 10 support and the promotion of AI PCs, further complicating the market outlook [1] Company Positioning - Major OEMs like Dell, HP, Lenovo, and ASUS are expected to better navigate the challenging environment due to their scale advantages, inventory leverage, and long-term supply agreements [2] - Smaller regional brands, white-label assemblers, and DIY system manufacturers are at a greater risk compared to larger players [2]