近20年数据复盘：沪指1月上涨概率50%，这些板块历史“战绩”较佳

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to enter 2026 with a nearly 50% probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in January, based on nearly 20 years of data [1] - In January, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown a monthly increase of over 5% in years such as 2009, 2006, 2023, 2018, and 2013 [1] Group 2 - Among major indices, the Sci-Tech 50, Dividend Index, and Shenzhen Component Index have shown over 50% rising probability in January over the past 20 years, with respective rates of 60%, 58%, and 55% [3] - The average increase for the Dividend Index and the Dividend Index is 0.98% and 0.74% respectively during January [3] Group 3 - In terms of industry sectors, 8 out of 31 Shenwan first-level sector indices have shown a rising probability of over 50% in January over the past 20 years, including Banking and Defense, both exceeding 60% [4] - The average increase for the Home Appliances and Banking sectors is 1.9% each, while the Computer sector averages 1.0% during January [4] Group 4 - Specific sub-sectors such as Air Conditioning, Pig Farming, and Robotics have shown relatively high rising probabilities in January over the past 20 years [6] - The average increase for sectors like Wind Power Components, Air Conditioning, and Organic Silicon is notably high [6]