Core Viewpoint - Analysts warn that if the next Federal Reserve Chair adopts more aggressive rate cuts as expected, the US dollar may weaken further [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - The biggest factor affecting the dollar in Q1 2026 will be the Federal Reserve, particularly who will succeed Jerome Powell after his term ends in May 2026 [1] - Potential candidates for the next Fed Chair include Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Kevin Warsh [1] Group 2: Market Expectations and Currency Trends - The market widely anticipates at least two rate cuts in the US in 2026, leading to a divergence in monetary policy compared to other developed economies, which diminishes the dollar's attractiveness [1] - The euro has strengthened significantly against the dollar due to mild inflation in the Eurozone and an impending wave of defense spending, resulting in almost zero bets on rate cuts in the Eurozone [1] - Rate traders expect central banks in Canada, Sweden, and Australia to raise interest rates [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment on Dollar Positions - Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that the dollar briefly saw bullish positions in December 2025 but quickly reverted to a dominant bearish stance since April 2025 [1]
美元创八年最差年度表现 美联储主席人选或成2026年走势关键
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-01 01:16