外资看2026：通胀与经济再平衡将成关键，中国市场叙事持续转变

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to show a strong upward trend in 2025, driven by the "New National Nine Policies" and the AI investment boom, which positively impacts sectors like computing power, semiconductors, and power equipment [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The "New National Nine Policies" are enhancing the overall return expectations for the equity market, encouraging companies to increase shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, leading to a significant rise in dividend and buyback scales [1] - Despite challenges such as trade environment fluctuations and macroeconomic pressures, the A-share market has still delivered strong returns, supported by policy backing and anticipated capital market efficiency reforms [1] - As of Q3 2025, the northbound capital from the Stock Connect holds a market value of 25,817.11 billion RMB, showing a slight increase of 2,944.06 billion from Q2, primarily due to stock appreciation [2] Group 2: Foreign Investment and Company Governance - Foreign institutions are increasingly focusing on potential investment returns driven by corporate governance improvements, with a notable trend in East Asian markets, particularly in China and South Korea, where companies are enhancing governance levels and increasing share buybacks [2] - The demand for dividend assets is rising among insurance and wealth management funds, as the A-share market's dividend yield advantage becomes more apparent in the context of declining risk-free interest rates and compressed bond market returns [1][2] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The return of moderate inflation is seen as a sign of normalization and structural health in the economy, with core inflation rising since May of the previous year, indicating potential for broader corporate profitability beyond the tech sector [3] - The "DeepSeek" market trend is characterized as a "perfect storm" resulting from multiple factors, including low market sentiment and the global AI topic's resonance, suggesting that further opening up is necessary to attract global investors [4] - The ongoing structural adjustments in the real estate market may lead to the stock market becoming a more attractive alternative for savings, as the domestic market narrative continues to evolve [5]