《求是》杂志特约评论员：改善和稳定房地产市场预期

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing and improving expectations in the real estate market to support the overall economy, especially in light of recent significant changes in supply and demand dynamics [2][4]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The real estate market in China is undergoing a deep adjustment, with a shift from a housing shortage to a basic balance in total supply, but with structural supply deficiencies, particularly in affordable housing [4][6]. - The average urban housing area per person reached 38.6 square meters in 2020, an increase of about 7 square meters over the past decade, with projections to reach approximately 41 square meters by the end of 2024 [3][6]. - The real estate sector's contribution to GDP is projected to be 13% in 2024, directly supporting over 70 million jobs, indicating its continued significance in the economy [5]. Group 2: Policy Measures and Government Actions - The Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26, 2024, highlighted the need to promote stability in the real estate market and to develop a new model for real estate growth, with a focus on high-quality development [7]. - A policy package has been introduced, including "four cancellations, four reductions, and two increases," aimed at stabilizing the market and ensuring the completion of housing projects [7][9]. - The government is actively managing supply by controlling new developments and revitalizing existing stock, while also encouraging the construction of high-quality housing [9][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Market Potential - Despite recent declines in investment, sectors such as housing services and second-hand transactions continue to grow, indicating significant market potential [5][8]. - The urbanization rate is projected to reach 67% by 2024, with ongoing demand from new urban residents and graduates, suggesting a sustained need for housing [6][8]. - The transition from traditional real estate development models to more integrated approaches that include services and operations is necessary for future growth [4][10].