杨德龙：2026年牛市进入新阶段 把握科技创新带来的投资机会

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy for 2026 emphasizes a continuation of the slow bull market, with key economic indicators and policies supporting this trend [2][12]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Trends - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate-cutting cycle, with predictions of more than two cuts in 2026, bringing the federal funds rate down to around 3% [4][15]. - China's economic indicators are projected to improve, with a recovery in consumption growth and gradual price increases due to effective growth stabilization policies [4][15]. - There is an acceleration of household savings shifting towards capital markets, with new fund issuances expected to reach 1 trillion yuan in 2025, over half of which will be equity funds [4][15]. Group 2: Real Estate and Investment Shifts - The real estate market is anticipated to continue its adjustment, with transaction volumes in first-tier cities expected to rebound and core area property prices stabilizing [4][15]. - The central bank is likely to maintain a loose monetary policy, with interest rates approaching zero, encouraging residents to seek higher-yielding assets [5][16]. - Fiscal policies are expected to be more proactive, with various measures planned to stimulate investment and boost consumption [6][16]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Sector Performance - The market is expected to transition from a structural bull market to a broad-based bull market, with technology stocks remaining a key focus but facing differentiation based on actual technological advancements [6][16]. - International gold prices are projected to rise long-term, with expectations of surpassing $5,000 to $10,000 per ounce due to global instability and concerns over U.S. debt [8][16]. - The RMB is expected to continue its appreciation trend, supported by technological innovations and optimistic views on China's economy, leading to sustained foreign capital inflows [9][16]. Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - The slow bull market is anticipated to continue, fulfilling multiple roles: enhancing household wealth to boost consumption, stabilizing the real estate market through wealth effects, and supporting the listing and financing of more tech innovation companies [10][17].