Sugar Prices Tumble on Dollar Strength

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 is down -0.37 (-2.42%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 is down -7.90 (-1.82%), indicating a sharp decline in sugar prices to 1-week lows [1] - The dollar index's rally to a 1-week high is exerting pressure on most commodity prices, including sugar [1] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production Outlook - Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 is expected to fall by -3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26, with exports projected to decrease by -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [2] - Conab raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for sugar prices [5] - Brazil's cumulative sugar output through November 2025-26 rose by +1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar increasing to 51.12% in 2025/26 from 48.34% in 2024/25 [5] Group 3: India's Sugar Production and Export Dynamics - India's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 31 MMT from 30 MMT, reflecting an increase of +18.8% year-on-year, which is pressuring sugar prices [4] - The Indian government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a quota system introduced for sugar exports in 2022/23 [3] - The India Sugar Mill Association reported a +28% year-on-year increase in sugar production from October 1 to December 15, reaching 7.83 MMT [4]