花旗：印度钢铁股或维持区间震荡走势 进口关税难改格局

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the Indian government's approval of safeguard duties on imported flat steel, Indian steel stocks are likely to remain in a range-bound trading pattern [1][2] - The Indian government has approved a final safeguard duty on imported flat steel, with rates set in three tiers: 12% for the first year, 11.5% for the second year, and 11% for the third year [1][2] - Citigroup forecasts a 36% year-on-year decline in Indian steel imports from April to November 2025; while steel prices may rise, the current discount of 7%-8% compared to import parity is unlikely to be fully closed [1][2] Group 2 - Steel companies' EBITDA is expected to be between spot prices and import parity, which will limit the upside potential of related stocks [1][2] - Steel stocks are anticipated to continue in a range-bound state until clarity emerges regarding steel price trends, third-quarter earnings, and corporate leverage trends [3] - Citigroup maintains a sell rating on the steel sector, with target prices set at ₹160 for Tata Steel, ₹915 for Jindal Southwest Steel, ₹830 for Jindal Steel, and ₹120 for Steel Authority of India [3]