2025年A股复盘：两大分水岭与核心驱动逻辑拆解

Group 1 - The market is facing two significant turning points in 2025, with the first being the tariff event that occurred in early April 2024, which led to a rapid market decline [1] - The tariff conflict's progression has been faster than in 2018, with both sides quickly raising tariffs and entering negotiations, indicating a strong bilateral dependency [2] - The second turning point in September is marked by major domestic events, leading to profit-taking after significant market gains in July and August [2] Group 2 - Following the tariff event, sectors such as optical modules, servers, and optical fiber cables performed exceptionally well in the second and third quarters, particularly benefiting from the accelerated shipment of NVIDIA's GB200 cabinets [2] - The market is currently experiencing volatility due to profit-taking and concerns over potential AI bubbles, alongside anticipation of policy directions from upcoming meetings [3] - High dividend and high cash flow assets are recommended for future allocations, with specific ETFs like cash flow ETF (159399) and dividend state-owned enterprise ETF (510720) being highlighted for their stability and potential [3]