华泰期货：白银黄金强震荡，需做好仓位控制

Core Viewpoint - Precious metal prices have experienced a significant pullback, with the main contract for gold (沪金2602) closing at 984.84 CNY per gram, down 3.11%, and silver (沪银2602) at 18,140 CNY per kilogram, down 3.96% [2][7]. Price Adjustment - The recent adjustment in precious metal prices has been previously indicated, particularly for silver, which has seen a rise exceeding fundamental pricing logic since December, driven by tight spot supply and low inventory levels [2][8]. - The market is facing bearish factors, including a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's easing pace expected in 2026, stable U.S. economic data, and rising raw material prices potentially leading to inflationary pressures that may suppress the likelihood of unexpected easing by the Fed [2][8]. Index Weight Adjustment - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will undergo an annual weight adjustment starting January 8, 2026. Due to the strong performance of gold and silver over the past three years, their weights in the index have significantly exceeded target levels, which may create short-term bearish pressure on gold and silver prices [2][8]. Market Outlook - The long-term logic of gold as a substitute for dollar assets remains fundamentally unchanged, maintaining an optimistic view on gold [2][8]. - Silver prices have shown strength due to spot shortages, reaching historical highs, but the price volatility necessitates careful position management and strict stop-loss execution, with caution advised against profit-taking risks during high-level fluctuations [2][8].