Where Will Fluor Corporation (FLR) Stock Be in 1 Year?

Core Viewpoint - Fluor is facing significant near-term challenges, including a stock decline of 20% in 2025, while the S&P 500 rose by 17% during the same period [1] Financial Performance - Fluor's second-quarter earnings report on August 1 missed analysts' expectations, leading to a reduction in its full-year outlook and the disclosure of cost overruns, scheduling delays, and design problems in major projects [2] - Revenue for Fluor increased by 5% in 2024, but adjusted EBITDA fell by 14% due to lower profits from its energy solutions segment and fewer contracts [7] - On a GAAP basis, Fluor's earnings per share surged from $0.54 in 2023 to $12.30 in 2024, primarily due to the sale of shares in NuScale Power [8] Legal and Operational Issues - The unexpected guidance reduction and execution issues led to a class action lawsuit from investors alleging misleading statements regarding growth prospects [4] - Fluor agreed to pay $653 million to Santos to resolve a legal dispute, which was recorded as a revenue reduction, further impacting its financial performance [5] Backlog and Contracting - Fluor's backlog shrank year over year for four consecutive quarters, as it completed existing projects faster than it could secure new contracts [9] - The company shifted towards smaller, lower-risk contracts to diversify its business and reduce dependence on large infrastructure projects [10] Future Outlook - Analysts expect Fluor's revenue and EBITDA to decline by 4% and 19% respectively for the full year, but anticipate a recovery in 2026 with expected increases of 7% and 10% [11] - The company's low valuation, with an enterprise value of $4.5 billion, suggests limited downside potential, and activist investor Starboard Value is pushing for monetization of its stake in NuScale [12] - If Fluor resolves its execution issues and grows its backlog, there is potential for gradual stock price recovery over the next 12 months [13]