加拿大股市全年累涨28% 创2009年以来最大涨幅

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian stock market delivered its second-best annual performance of the century, surprising many given the initial market conditions in April, which were marked by significant political and trade tensions [1][9]. Market Performance - The S&P/TSX Composite Index rebounded over 40% from its low on April 8, ultimately closing the year up 28%, marking its best annual performance since 2009 [1][9]. - The index set a record with 63 closing highs during the last seven months of the year [1][9]. Key Drivers of Growth - Mining and banking stocks were the primary drivers of the market's rise, with the materials sector index nearly doubling and the financial sector increasing over 30% [2][9]. - Major technology stocks, such as Shopify and THL Electronics, also contributed to the index's growth [2][9]. Economic Factors - The rise in precious metal prices, driven by three interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, has been beneficial for non-yielding assets like gold and silver [4][11]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and trade policy unpredictability have led traders to view gold and silver as safe-haven assets [4][11]. Financial Sector Insights - Canadian banks, including Toronto-Dominion Bank and Bank of Montreal, exceeded market expectations with an average adjusted earnings per share growth of about 15% [5][11]. - The financial sector, which comprises 33% of the Canadian benchmark index, benefited from the interest rate cuts and robust lending performance [5][11]. Valuation Concerns - Canadian bank stocks saw a cumulative increase of 40% in 2025, significantly outperforming U.S. bank stocks [6][13]. - However, there are concerns regarding high valuations in the financial sector, with the banking index's price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 14, compared to less than 10 in 2022 [6][13]. Oil and Energy Outlook - Despite a weak performance in oil prices throughout the year, the Canadian benchmark index reached historical highs [6][13]. - The outlook for oil remains uncertain, with demand growth lagging behind supply, making investments in oil and gas stocks a contrarian strategy [6][13]. Investment Strategies - Some investment firms have adopted a partial underweight strategy for the Canadian benchmark index, primarily for profit-taking after three years of excess returns [7][14]. - Analysts believe that if oil prices exceed expectations in 2026, stocks listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange could become attractive to international investors [7][14].