Dollar Strength Weighs on Sugar Prices

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 closed down -0.42 (-2.75%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 closed down -8.60 (-1.98%) on Tuesday, indicating a decline in sugar prices to 1-week lows due to a rally in the dollar index [1] - Earlier in the month, sugar prices were pressured by expectations of higher sugar exports from India, as the government may permit additional exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut [3] - The outlook for record sugar output in Brazil is bearish for prices, with Conab raising its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 million metric tons (MMT) from 44.5 MMT [5] Group 2: Production Estimates - Brazil's sugar production in 2026/27 is expected to fall by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26, with exports anticipated to decline by -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [2] - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, an increase of +18.8% year-on-year, while also cutting the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production [4] - Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through November rose by +1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar increasing to 51.12% in 2025/26 from 48.34% in 2024/25 [5]