2025楼市前高后低，业内预计调整四年后已逐步企稳

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry has shown signs of stabilization and recovery in 2025 after a prolonged adjustment period since the second half of 2021, with policies shifting from "support and relief" to boosting confidence and activating housing demand [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing is expected to be approximately 890 million square meters, with a sales amount of 8.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a narrowing decline compared to the previous year [1] - The fourth quarter saw a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% in new housing transaction area across 100 cities, with December experiencing a significant 18% increase [1][5] - The second-hand housing market has become a major battleground, with a total transaction area of approximately 214 million square meters in 30 key cities, surpassing new housing transactions by 1.85 times, marking a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2% [7] Group 2: Policy Changes - The main policy direction in 2025 focused on clearing restrictive measures and promoting housing demand, with over 560 policy measures introduced across more than 210 provinces and cities [2] - Key measures included optimizing public housing fund loans, increasing home purchase subsidies, and reducing housing transaction taxes to lower costs and stimulate demand [2] - Beijing's new policies further relaxed restrictions on home purchases and loans, setting a precedent for other cities to follow suit in removing unreasonable limitations [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The new housing market has seen a significant decline in overall transaction volume, dropping nearly 50% from the peak in 2021, with only ten companies achieving sales exceeding 100 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [6] - The demand for larger homes has increased, with over 30% of new home transactions in 2025 being for units larger than 120 square meters [5] - The second-hand housing market has shown a clear recovery trend, with major cities like Beijing and Shanghai seeing significant increases in high-value transactions [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to enter a phase of "weak recovery, gradual balance, and deep differentiation" in 2026, with ongoing efforts to address structural inventory issues and stabilize market confidence [12] - The government is likely to continue implementing targeted policies to stimulate demand, particularly in areas such as urban village renovations and support for low-income homebuyers [11] - The overall housing demand in urban areas is projected to be around 4.98 billion square meters during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, indicating potential for future growth in the real estate sector [11]