杨德龙：盘点2025年全球股市表现 2026年依然大有可为

Group 1: Global Market Performance - The global capital markets showed resilience in 2025, with many stock markets continuing the upward trend from 2024, despite a significant adjustment in April due to Trump's tariff policies [1][6] - The MSCI global index achieved a two-digit increase of approximately 20% in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of growth exceeding 15%, largely driven by the ongoing AI revolution [1][6] - The A-share and Hong Kong markets performed well, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 20% and the ChiNext Index soaring by 50%, indicating a strong tech bull market [1][6] Group 2: Asia-Pacific Market Dynamics - The MSCI Asia-Pacific index surged by about 28% in 2025, marking the first time since 2020 that Asian markets outperformed major US and European indices in a single year [2][7] - Japan's Nikkei 225 index broke the 50,000-point barrier with a 30% annual increase, demonstrating strong performance despite the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes [2][7] - The Asia-Pacific region holds 75% of global semiconductor manufacturing capacity and is expected to maintain its leading position in the next five years due to cost advantages and a complete industrial chain [2][7] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The logic supporting global stock market growth remains unchanged, with expectations of at least two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, potentially boosting market liquidity [8] - A potential shift in leadership at the Federal Reserve could lead to more aggressive rate cuts, further supporting global stock markets [8] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are projected to rise by 10% to 20% in 2026, driven by policy support, foreign capital inflows, and a shift of household savings into capital markets [9][10] Group 4: Sector Performance and Investment Opportunities - The market structure in 2025 was characterized by a "barbell" approach, with low-valuation, high-dividend bank stocks rising significantly alongside strong performance in technology growth stocks [4][10] - The technology sector, particularly in humanoid robots, semiconductor chips, advanced algorithms, and solid-state batteries, is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2026 [4][10] - As market funds increase and household savings shift towards capital markets, A-shares are likely to transition from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market, presenting more investment opportunities [10]