2025年国债市场年鉴：筹资精准服务国家战略 收益率于预期交织中锚定“新平衡”

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government bond market in 2025 is characterized by a unique path amid macroeconomic narratives and intense market dynamics, effectively supporting fiscal policies and enhancing resilience while fulfilling its core mission of financing and liquidity provision [1] Group 1: Primary Market - The primary market for government bonds in 2025 achieved a historic leap with a total issuance of 16,014.02 billion yuan, a significant increase of 28.37% compared to 12,474.83 billion yuan in 2024 [2][3] - The issuance structure was optimized with a scientific front-loading of issuance schedules, ensuring timely funding for major national strategies [4] - The issuance of special bonds, particularly ultra-long-term special bonds amounting to 1.3 trillion yuan, targeted critical national strategic areas and is expected to significantly boost annual GDP growth [4] Group 2: Interest Rates and Market Dynamics - The overall interest rates for government bonds showed a downward trend, effectively guiding the financing costs across the economy, with short-term rates ranging from 1.16% to 1.79% and 10-year bond rates stabilizing around 1.78% [5] - The secondary market experienced fluctuations in the 10-year bond yield, which ranged from approximately 1.6% to 1.9%, reflecting a complex interplay of market expectations and policy responses [7] Group 3: Market Functionality and Future Outlook - The evolution of the government bond market in 2025 transcended mere financing, becoming a cornerstone of national financial strategy, enhancing its role as a stabilizer and attractor of foreign investment [11] - The modernization of bond management, including the integration of bond trading into regular monetary policy tools, marks a significant milestone in improving monetary policy transmission efficiency [11] - Looking ahead, the bond market is expected to continue evolving under the theme of "high-quality development," balancing government financing needs with financial stability while enhancing the role of the yield curve as a pricing benchmark [12]