一文读懂 | 预见2026——机构首席这么看

Macroeconomic Insights - China's economic growth is characterized by a shift from a single focus on growth rate to a more balanced and stable economic structure, with significant contributions from domestic consumption [2] - The resilience of exports has exceeded expectations despite external tariff pressures, indicating a robust adaptability of China's economic fundamentals [2] - The "anti-involution" policies are positively impacting the midstream manufacturing sector, leading to a revaluation of value driven by deeper industrial structure changes [2] Bond Market Analysis - The 10-year government bond yield is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a range of approximately 30 basis points, reflecting a complex interplay of market forces [3] - The narrative in the bond market has shifted from linear macroeconomic projections to a focus on event impacts, policy expectations, and institutional behaviors [3] - Chinese bonds are becoming increasingly attractive to global investors, offering stable returns and low correlation, positioning them as a potential "stability anchor" in global portfolios [4] Artificial Intelligence Sector - The AI sector is transitioning from a "technology race" to a practical "value realization" phase, with rapid industry expansion and a shift in investment focus from infrastructure to application layers [5] - The structure of the AI industry is expected to resemble an inverted pyramid, with increasing market size driven by applications, models, and chips [5] - Companies with a growing share of AI revenue are likely to attract more capital market attention, leading to potential valuation increases [5] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market is undergoing a significant value reassessment, with a clear divide in performance between traditional cyclical products and sectors like precious and non-ferrous metals [7] - Analysts predict that the structural differentiation in the commodity market will continue, driven by supply reshaping, policy adjustments, and enhanced financial attributes [7] - Non-ferrous metals are widely regarded as having the most significant upside potential in the upcoming market landscape [7]