国投期货:美国债务膨胀和去美元化进程是支撑黄金的长期因素
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-01 06:52

Core Viewpoint - The long-term factors supporting gold include the expansion of U.S. debt and the process of de-dollarization, with gold serving as a hedge against currency depreciation and systemic risks [1] Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The trend of de-globalization and de-dollarization positions gold as an important strategic asset in the financial system [1] - Historical comparisons suggest that gold prices still have upward potential, although macroeconomic divergences may increase the frequency of price fluctuations at historical highs [1] - Expectations of economic soft landing and easing geopolitical tensions may lead to a transition of funds from safe-haven assets to risk assets, potentially weakening gold's upward momentum [1] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - The current valuation framework for silver emphasizes its financial attributes and value analysis, using gold as a benchmark [1] - The reasonable valuation for silver, based on the gold-silver ratio, is considered to be below 50, which implies a fair silver price of 20,000 when gold prices remain unchanged [1]