Stocks Fall Slightly in Thin Holiday Trade

Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index closed down -0.14%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index down -0.20%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index down -0.25% on Tuesday [1] - March E-mini S&P futures fell -0.14%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures fell -0.22% [1][2] Economic Indicators - The 10-year T-note yield rose by 2 basis points to 4.13%, negatively impacting stocks [2] - The October S&P Case-Shiller composite-20 home price index increased by +0.3% month-over-month and +1.3% year-over-year, surpassing expectations [3] - The December MNI Chicago PMI rose by +9.2 to 43.5, also stronger than anticipated [3] Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes from the December 9-10 FOMC meeting indicated a neutral to slightly hawkish stance, with some policymakers suggesting interest rates should remain on hold for some time [4] - Concerns were raised about the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched, which could affect future rate cuts [4] Seasonal Trends - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 has risen 75% of the time in the last two weeks of December, with an average increase of 1.3% [4] Upcoming Economic Data - Initial weekly unemployment claims are expected to rise by +5,000 to 219,000 [5] - The December S&P manufacturing PMI is anticipated to remain unchanged at 51.8 [5] - The market is pricing in a 15% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC's next meeting on January 27-28 [5]