New Year’s Day Pause: Futures Hint at Continued Momentum as Markets Eye 2026 Kickoff

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets, including NYSE and Nasdaq, are closed for New Year's Day, providing a moment for investors to reflect on 2025 and anticipate market drivers for 2026 [1] - Futures market activity indicates a mildly positive sentiment, with the US500 rising to 6856 points, a 0.15% gain from the previous session [2] - Global market participation is limited due to the holiday, but some Asian markets, like India, show cautious optimism with domestic institutional buying [3] 2025 Performance Review - U.S. equities saw significant gains in 2025, with the Dow increasing by 13%, the S&P 500 by 16.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 20.4% [4] - These gains were attributed to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a booming tech sector driven by AI investments [4] 2026 Outlook - Wall Street analysts project an 11% rise for the S&P 500 in 2026, supported by strong corporate earnings and continued AI spending [5] - Anticipation of further interest rate easing by the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2026 is expected to support a cooling labor market [5] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key economic data releases in early January 2026 include Initial Claims, ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP National Employment Report, and Employment Situation report, which will influence market sentiment [6][8] Corporate Developments - Lundin Mining Corporation completed a share buyback program, acquiring over 15 million shares for approximately US$150 million [13] - Li Auto Inc. reported strong December deliveries of 44,246 vehicles, totaling 109,194 for Q4 2025, and expanded its global footprint [13] - The retail sector faced challenges, with over 8,100 store closures in 2025, a 12% increase from 2024, affecting notable brands [13] - The tech sector, particularly AI-related companies, dominated headlines, with Google achieving its best year since 2009 and Nvidia driving market gains despite valuation concerns [13]