创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春展望今年A股市场 内需消费板块或将“结构性崛起”

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, the A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend, shifting from "expectation overdraft" to "profit realization," with performance certainty becoming the core basis for valuation [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - In 2025, the A-share market showed a volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 20% and reaching 4000 points at one point; technology growth stocks led the rally, with the ChiNext Index surging by 50% [3][4]. - The structural differentiation in the market is attributed to the evolution of asset pricing logic, focusing on technology growth sectors, particularly driven by new productive forces [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified in the new productive forces sector (electronics, high-end equipment) and midstream manufacturing and upstream resource products [4][5]. - The consumer sector is expected to experience a "structural rise" rather than a full recovery, with new consumption trends becoming the main line of growth, while traditional consumption may see only a rebound from oversold conditions [5][6]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Factors - Policy measures aimed at promoting consumption are expected to resonate with changes in consumer behavior, benefiting virtual and emotional consumption sectors, such as AI-enabled consumption scenarios and digital cultural products [6]. - The share of service consumption in total consumption is projected to continue increasing, with emerging service sectors like health care and cultural tourism benefiting from supply optimization and scenario relaxation [6]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategies - For asset allocation in 2026, a strategy focusing on "offensive through profits, defensive through liquidity, and structural differentiation" is recommended [6]. - In the stock market, priority should be given to the new productive forces sector and cyclical products benefiting from PPI recovery, while maintaining low-volatility dividend stocks as a base [6]. - In the bond market, a "low volatility + narrow fluctuation" strategy is advised, emphasizing interest income and liquidity balance, with a focus on high-rated credit bonds [6][7].