零星出口成交仍难改变过剩格局 纯苯维持内弱外强

Core Viewpoint - The pure benzene futures market shows slight fluctuations with a current price of 5463 CNY/ton, while inventory levels are rising significantly compared to previous periods, indicating potential supply-demand imbalances in the near future [1][2][4]. Market Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the main pure benzene futures contract closed at 5463 CNY/ton, with a weekly price change of 0.15% [1]. - The weekly opening price was 5490 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 5626 CNY/ton and a low of 5455 CNY/ton [1]. Inventory Levels - As of December 29, 2025, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Jiangsu ports reached 300,000 tons, an increase of 9.89% from the previous period [2]. - Year-on-year, the inventory has risen by 56.09%, from 192,200 tons to 278,000 tons [2]. Price Trends - On December 30, the spot price of pure benzene was reported at 5268.67 CNY/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous day [2]. - Over the past week, the price increased by 77.67 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 1.50%, while the monthly increase was 21 CNY/ton, or 0.40% [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of pure benzene has shown slight fluctuations, while demand from key downstream products such as styrene, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid has seen varying degrees of improvement [4]. - However, the overall demand from downstream sectors is not expected to provide strong support in the medium to long term [4]. Market Outlook - New Lake Futures suggests that while port inventories continue to rise and the aromatics blending logic remains weak, there is no need for excessive pessimism in the medium term due to potential changes in trade flows and stable crude oil prices [4]. - South China Futures notes that the inventory levels at major ports have reached historical highs, posing a risk of overstock, while upcoming refinery maintenance plans may reduce the monthly maintenance losses for pure benzene in the first half of the next year [4].