【环球财经】新年首日南非兰特持稳 市场预期稳定

Core Viewpoint - The South African Rand (ZAR) has shown a strong performance at the beginning of 2026, trading at approximately 16.51 ZAR per USD, benefiting from a weaker USD and various supportive domestic factors [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The South African Rand appreciated by about 12.4% against the USD in 2025, making it one of the standout performers among major emerging market currencies [1]. - Despite facing pressures from US trade and political policies, the Rand has remained relatively strong, with a measure of expected volatility reaching its lowest level since the turn of the century [1]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - Key factors supporting the Rand's strength include its removal from the Financial Action Task Force's special scrutiny list in October 2025, a mid-term budget policy that gained market approval in November 2025, and an upgrade in South Africa's sovereign credit rating by S&P Global [1]. - The government's implementation of interest rate cuts in a low inflation environment has also contributed positively to market sentiment [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Investec's chief economist, the Rand's performance is significantly influenced by USD fluctuations, with expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts potentially boosting commodity prices, which would benefit commodity currencies like the Rand [2]. - However, the Rand remains a highly volatile emerging market currency, with risks of correction due to domestic policy changes or external shocks that could impact exchange rate trends and market expectations [2].