罕见，暴涨超200%！比金银还猛

Core Viewpoint - Tungsten prices have surged over 200% since the beginning of 2025, driven by supply constraints and increased demand in various industries, including high-end manufacturing and renewable energy [1][2][6] Group 1: Price Trends - In 2025, the price of black tungsten concentrate rose from approximately 143,000 CNY/ton to 459,000 CNY/ton, while ammonium paratungstate increased from about 210,500 CNY/ton to 675,000 CNY/ton, both exceeding 200% growth [2] - The international gold price saw a significant increase of over 70% in 2025, influencing the prices of other precious metals, including silver, which rose approximately 150% [1] Group 2: Supply Constraints - China accounted for 83% of global tungsten production in 2024, with a total output of 67,000 tons [4] - Since 1991, tungsten has been classified as a protected mining resource in China, with strict export controls and increased efforts to combat smuggling and illegal mining, leading to tighter domestic and international supply [6] - Analysts indicate that challenges such as declining mining years and lower ore grades are directly contributing to the significant price increases [8] Group 3: Demand and Market Dynamics - Despite rising tungsten prices, downstream companies, particularly in Hunan and Jiangxi, have not seen a decrease in orders; some sectors even report growth [12][14] - Companies are employing strategies such as long-term contracts for raw materials, cost reduction in production, and price increases for high-end products to mitigate the impact of rising costs [16] - The unique characteristics of tungsten and its applications in high-temperature and corrosion-resistant environments contribute to sustained demand, even amid rising material costs [20] Group 4: Future Outlook - The supply tightness is expected to persist in the short term, with limited downward price movement anticipated [22] - The recovery rate of tungsten resources is gradually improving, with global recycling rates reaching 30%-35%, while China's rate remains at 15.5%, indicating significant potential for growth [22] - The expansion of tungsten applications in emerging industries, such as AI and renewable energy, is expected to support long-term price stability [23][25][27] - Analysts predict that tungsten prices will maintain an upward trend, establishing a new normal of high prices due to a sustained supply-demand balance [29]