A股展望牛市2.0

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its bullish trend into 2026, with a projected index increase of 10%, driven by a shift from valuation recovery to profit growth [1][4]. Market Outlook - A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks are anticipated to maintain their bullish momentum, supported by global liquidity easing, economic recovery, rapid development of the AI industry, and rising resource prices [2]. - The current bull market is characterized by a policy shift, improved liquidity, and various factors including technological breakthroughs and changes in U.S.-China relations [2]. - Analysts predict that the A-share market will see a profit growth of 8% in 2026, following a 6% increase in 2025, aided by macro policies and a shift of household savings into the stock market [3]. Investment Strategies - The market is expected to transition into a "prosperity verification period" in 2026, where the core driver will be fundamental improvements rather than valuation increases [5]. - Key investment areas include technology and resource sectors, with a focus on AI applications, new energy, and industries benefiting from the "anti-involution" policies [6][7]. - Goldman Sachs suggests focusing on four main areas: AI and technology, leading Chinese companies expanding overseas, new consumption sectors, and industries benefiting from supportive policies [6]. Market Dynamics - The market structure is expected to become less extreme compared to 2025, with a broader distribution of economic prosperity across consumption, cyclical, and manufacturing sectors [7]. - The transition from a valuation-driven market to a profit-driven market is anticipated, with a potential for a "bull market 2.0" phase in the latter half of 2026 [4].