Year-End Short Covering Boosts Sugar Prices

Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +0.17 (+1.15%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +1.50 (+0.35%) on Wednesday, recovering from 1-week lows due to year-end fund short covering [1] - Sugar prices initially fell on Wednesday as the dollar index rose to a 1-week high, impacting most commodity prices including sugar [1] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production Outlook - Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 is expected to decline by -3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26, with exports anticipated to fall -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [2] - Conab raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from a previous forecast of 44.5 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for prices [5] - Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through November increased by +1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rising to 51.12% in 2025/26 from 48.34% in 2024/25 [5] Group 3: India's Sugar Production and Export Potential - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate for India to 31 MMT, an increase of +18.8% year-on-year, while cutting the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production to 3.4 MMT [3] - Indian sugar production from October 1 to December 31 jumped 24% year-on-year to 11.83 MMT [3] - India's government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a quota system introduced for sugar exports in the 2022/23 season [4]