Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-02 04:53Core Viewpoint - The lithium industry is currently experiencing a downturn due to oversupply, leading to a significant drop in lithium prices, but a potential recovery is anticipated by 2025 driven by strong demand in energy storage and electric vehicles [1][6][12] Industry Status: Low Point with Signs of Recovery - The lithium industry is in a "winter period" from 2023 to mid-2025, with an overall operating rate around 50% and many high-cost projects either ceasing operations or enduring losses [1] - Lithium prices have dropped over 89% during this downturn, with some projects facing existential threats [1] - As of November 20, 2025, lithium carbonate weekly output reached 22,000 tons, a 3% month-on-month increase, indicating a recovery in supply and demand [3] - Inventory levels for lithium carbonate are at historical lows, with a total of 118,000 tons, down 2,052 tons from the previous period [3] 2025 Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate market is expected to show a volatile pattern in 2025, with prices initially declining from 73,900 yuan/ton to 59,000 yuan/ton, a drop of 20.11%, before rebounding to a peak of 126,800 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [4] - The demand for lithium carbonate is projected to reach 1.45 million tons in 2025, driven by a 65% year-on-year increase in domestic lithium iron phosphate production [6][8] 2026 Supply and Demand Outlook - The lithium industry is expected to transition from oversupply to a balanced state due to unexpected growth in energy storage demand and the continued rollout of new electric vehicle applications [6] - Energy storage demand is projected to reach 345,000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2025, with expectations of exceeding 500,000 tons in 2026, marking a tenfold increase from 2021 [6] - The global lithium supply is estimated at 1.57 million tons LCE in 2025, with further increases expected in 2026, leading to a narrowing of the oversupply to approximately 30,000 tons [8][10] Price Support Factors - Key factors supporting lithium prices include historically low inventory levels, strong growth in demand from energy storage and electric vehicles, and a willingness among mining companies to maintain price levels [11] - The lowest lithium price in 2025 was 58,000 yuan/ton, which has already impacted high-cost projects, but with improved processing profits, production enthusiasm is expected to rise [11] - Predictions indicate that lithium prices in 2026 will range between 70,000 and 130,000 yuan/ton, with a gradual upward shift in price levels as the industry moves towards a tighter balance [11] Industry Cycle and Valuation - The lithium industry is entering a recovery phase after a prolonged downturn, with historical comparisons suggesting that recovery to profitability may take time [12] - Current valuations for lithium-related companies are at historical lows, indicating significant potential for valuation recovery as profit expectations improve [12] - Leading companies such as Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium are expected to benefit the most from any price rebounds, with current price-to-book ratios significantly below historical averages [12]