光伏“反内卷”成效几何

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) industry, known for its cost reduction achievements, is expected to shift towards price increases in 2026 after a period of intense competition and low margins [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Developments - The establishment of the "Silicon Material Capacity Integration Acquisition Platform" by Guanghe Qiancheng aims to consolidate silicon material capacity and stabilize production levels to drive up silicon prices [3]. - As of December 17, 2025, the prices of photovoltaic modules have started to rise due to increases in commodity prices, including silver and silicon, along with production cuts by module manufacturers [3]. - Current silicon prices have risen to approximately 52,000 yuan per ton, with expectations that they could reach between 65,000 to 70,000 yuan per ton due to the capacity integration plan [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a "reverse involution" strategy, with leading companies potentially prioritizing price over volume to establish new self-discipline agreements [3]. - The efficiency of photovoltaic modules is becoming a key standard for capacity replacement, with lower efficiency modules being phased out in favor of those with higher efficiency [4]. - The release of Document No. 136 in 2025 has restructured profit distribution across the industry chain, shifting the burden of consumption costs to photovoltaic power stations [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The new installations of photovoltaic systems in 2025 are expected to show a "pulse-like" growth pattern, with significant installations concentrated in the first half of the year, followed by a decline in the second half [5]. - Historical parallels are drawn to the 2018 policy changes that led to a sharp decline in new installations, indicating that policy shifts can create short-term challenges but may lead to new business models [5]. - Recommendations for photovoltaic developers include exploring domestic green electricity potential and promoting the use of green hydrogen, ammonia, and alcohol applications [5][6].