Trump Tariff Checks: Betting Markets Skeptical Of Early Rollout, With Odds Under 15% Until May - SPDR S&P 500 (ARCA:SPY)

Group 1 - Prediction markets indicate skepticism regarding the timely distribution of President Trump's proposed $2,000 "tariff dividend" checks, with traders assigning virtually no chance for an early payout in the first half of 2026 [1] - On Polymarket, there is a 45% probability that the tariff dividend program will be successfully created by June 30, but the likelihood of Americans receiving checks before June is only 15%, highlighting a significant gap of 30 percentage points [2][3] - Recent statements from the administration suggest delays, with President Trump targeting mid-2026 or later for issuing checks, and emphasizing the need for congressional approval [4] Group 2 - The proposed tariff dividend program faces a significant financial challenge, with the Tax Foundation estimating an annual cost of up to $606.8 billion, which far exceeds projected tariff revenues of $207.5 billion for 2026 [5] - There is a noted decline in customs duties collected by the government, with November collections being lower than those in October, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the program's funding [5]