2026年首个交易日英镑走势缺乏方向

Core Viewpoint - The British pound remains stable against the US dollar and euro as the market lacks significant news to drive exchange rate movements at the start of 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Activity - Trading activity in the UK market is expected to remain subdued around the Christmas and New Year holidays, with a full recovery in market activity anticipated next week [2][4]. - Recent weeks have seen a reduction in concerns regarding the UK fiscal budget and Bank of England policies, which have significantly influenced the recent exchange rate of the pound [2][4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Bank of England passed a rate cut decision last month with a narrow vote of 5 to 4, indicating a potential slowdown in its already gradual easing pace in 2026 [2][4]. - Market traders expect the next rate cut from the Bank of England to occur in June, with current pricing suggesting a total reduction of only 40 basis points for 2026, implying a 60% probability of a further 25 basis point cut by year-end [2][4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - A recent survey indicated that UK manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in 15 months in December, although the growth rate was below previous expectations [2][4]. - The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 50.2 in November to 50.6 in December, but was lower than the preliminary reading of 51.2 [2][4]. - An economist from Pantheon Macroeconomics stated that the PMI reflects a stable state for UK manufacturing at present [2][4].