Apollo Management(US:APO) 智通财经网·2026-01-02 13:00Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is entering the 2026 trading year with strong momentum, despite facing significant headwinds in 2025, which saw economic growth consistently exceed expectations [1][2]. Economic Growth - Economic growth in 2025 has shown resilience, overcoming challenges such as trade tensions, tariff uncertainties, stricter immigration rules, and the resumption of federal student loan repayments [1]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the "Big Beautiful Bill" could boost the GDP by nearly one percentage point in 2026 [1]. Investment Factors - Strong investments related to artificial intelligence (AI) and data center expansion continue to drive economic activity [1]. - A weakening dollar and potential fiscal policy support are also contributing positively to the economic outlook [1]. Future Outlook - There is a warning of a potential short-term stagflation period, with expected growth slowdown as additional tariffs come into effect, while inflation rates are projected to remain above the Federal Reserve's target (around 3%) [1]. - Despite a consensus expectation of nearly a 30% chance of recession in 2026, the overall outlook remains constructive, with a belief that growth will accelerate again driven by AI [1][2].