金源灿:2026年初黄金市场分析及短线操作策略

Core Viewpoint - The bullish trend in the gold market remains solid as of early 2026, with a rebound in prices becoming a trend-driven inevitability, supported by both technical patterns and geopolitical factors [1][3]. Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to create uncertainty, enhancing gold's safe-haven appeal, which is a core logic supporting high gold prices [1][3]. Monetary Policy Risks - Potential adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy could pose substantial risks to the bullish trend in gold. Signals of interest rate hikes or liquidity tightening may alter market capital flows and exert downward pressure on gold prices [1][3]. Short-term Trading Focus - For short-term traders, the long-term trend should serve as background knowledge, with the primary focus on daily price movements to capitalize on short-term volatility [1][3]. Market Performance and Technical Analysis - Following the New Year holiday, the gold market is expected to experience some downward adjustment, with a continued bottom repair process anticipated. The key technical level to watch is around 4404; if the bulls can maintain above this level, it may lead to a resurgence in daily price trends [1][3]. Daily Trading Strategy - The market is expected to see a rebound, with a focus on long positions during the day. However, caution is advised as gold prices approach the 4404 resistance level, where a potential bearish reaction is likely [2][4]. Key Support and Resistance Levels - An important support level is identified at 4325; if this level holds, gold may maintain a strong rebound. Conversely, a break below this level could lead to further declines [2][4]. Specific Trading Strategies - Traders are advised to consider short positions around the 4385-4390 resistance zone, with additional shorting opportunities if prices reach the 4400-4405 range. Stop-loss should be set around 4417, targeting a drop to the 4340-4345 range, with further downside potential to 4318-4320 if the initial targets are breached [5].