Should You Buy CRED ETF Before The Fed Cuts Rates In 2026?

Core Viewpoint - The Columbia Research Enhanced Real Estate ETF (CRED) launched at an inopportune time, coinciding with a bear market in real estate, and has since delivered a negative return of 1.6% while managing only $3.1 million in assets, raising liquidity concerns for investors [1] Group 1: Market Conditions and Rate Cuts - The real estate sector has been in a downturn, with the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) losing approximately 24% from its peak in December 2021 to the end of 2025, primarily due to the Federal Reserve's rate hikes from near zero to over 5% starting in March 2022 [2] - The Fed is expected to cut rates in December 2025, with forecasts suggesting further cuts in 2026, potentially lowering the fed funds rate to between 3% and 3.25% from the current 3.75% to 4% [2] Group 2: Impact of Lower Rates - Lower interest rates will reduce the cost of debt for property acquisition and development, enhance the attractiveness of REIT dividends compared to Treasury yields, and lower cap rates, thereby boosting property valuations [3] - CRED, which yields just over 4%, will benefit from a falling rate environment, making its income stream more competitive [3] Group 3: CRED's Investment Strategy - CRED allocates about 28% to infrastructure REITs, which are less sensitive to interest rate changes compared to traditional property types, providing steady cash flows from long-term leases [4] - However, this defensive positioning may limit upside potential when rates fall, as traditional REITs with higher leverage could benefit more from easing cycles [6] Group 4: Comparison with Alternatives - The Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (SCHH) offers a similar portfolio with lower liquidity risk, charging only 0.07% in annual fees compared to CRED's 0.33%, and has $7 billion in assets, providing greater scale and trading volume [7] Group 5: Future Considerations - The key factor for CRED in 2026 will be whether the Fed implements the expected rate cuts, alongside the performance of its infrastructure-heavy portfolio in capturing recovery opportunities [8]