Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-02 14:31Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market opened higher on the first trading day of 2026, with technology stocks attempting to continue the upward momentum from the previous year [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has historically closed lower on the first trading day for the past three years, with a roughly 48% probability of closing higher since the 1950s [3][6]. - In 2025, the S&P 500 index rose over 16%, marking its third consecutive annual increase, while the Nasdaq Composite surged over 20% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by approximately 13% [3][6]. - All three major indices reached historical highs last year [3][6]. Group 2: Technology Sector - Technology stocks, particularly Nvidia and Palantir, continued their strong performance from 2025, with Nvidia rising about 39% and Palantir soaring 135% [3][6]. - Other tech giants like Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft also saw significant gains [3][6]. Group 3: Tariff Impact - The stock prices of online home goods company Wayfair and luxury furniture retailer RH increased following President Trump's announcement to delay tariff hikes on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets, and vanities by one year [3][6]. - The tariffs that were postponed include a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture and a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and vanities, while maintaining a 25% tariff that has been in effect since September [3][6]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - Deutsche Bank strategists noted that 2025 was a strong year due to sustained economic growth, optimism around artificial intelligence, and additional central bank rate cuts, despite significant volatility [4][7]. - Wall Street strategists predict further gains for U.S. stocks in 2026, with an average target for the S&P 500 index set at 7629 points, indicating an upside potential of 11.4% [4][7].