鲍威尔卸任主席职位后，会不会继续留在美联储理事会？

Core Viewpoint - The future of Jerome Powell's position at the Federal Reserve after his term as Chairman ends in May 2026 remains uncertain, leading to speculation about his potential departure or continuation in the role [1][6][7]. Group 1: Powell's Decision and Its Implications - Powell's decision is seen as a painful choice between personal life and professional responsibilities, with many believing he may wish to return to civilian life after 13 years at the Fed [2][7]. - There is a concern that if Powell leaves, President Trump would gain a majority on the Board of Governors, which could facilitate his push for lower interest rates [3][8]. - Historically, only one former Fed Chair, Marriner Eccles, continued as a Governor after his term, which highlights the rarity of such a situation [3][7]. Group 2: Political Dynamics and Independence - The current political climate is characterized by a president who seeks to exert unprecedented control over Fed policy, contrasting with Powell's efforts to maintain the Fed's independence [1][6]. - Observers note that Powell's silence on his future may be a strategic move to assert his independence and signal his willingness to stay if extreme candidates are nominated by the president [5][9]. - The outcome of the case involving Fed Governor Lisa Cook could significantly impact Powell's decision, as her potential removal would shift the balance of power on the Board [8][9].